CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-01T22:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-01T22:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27973/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. Brightening and broad area of dimming starts at 2023-12-01T21:15Z in SDO AIA 193, 171. Rising/opening field lines as well as ejecta off the SW limb visible in SDO AIA 171 around 21:51Z. Post-eruptive arcades visible at 23:24Z in SDO AIA 171 and 304 imagery. Associated with an M1.0 flare from AR 13500. Arrival signature likely combined with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream in DSCOVR data at L1 and is characterized by an amplification in magnetic field components, with B_total increasing from approx. 6 nT to 10 nT by 2023-12-04T05:10Z, and an increase in density. The solar wind speed increased from around 500 km/s to 520 km/s, reaching 550 km/s around 2023-12-04T09:00Z, but was already elevated from the coronal hole high speed stream influence.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-04T04:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-05T04:20Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Issued: 2023 Dec 02 1347 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 22:12 UTC. It is likely to be geo-effective and arrive at the first half of 5 Dec.Lead Time: 38.65 hour(s)
Difference: -23.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-12-02T13:51Z
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